Over-reaction Tuesday: It's business as usual as a new era begins
The atmosphere at the first-ever College Football Playoff games held on campus was brilliant. As for what we saw on the gridiron ... not so much. But blowouts in the CFP are nothing new.
From South Bend to Columbus, with stops in State College and Austin in between, it was there — we saw actual College Football Playoff games on campuses, instead of the antiseptic neutral site venues that we’ve gotten used to seeing over the years. And yes, it was glorious.
If there was anything to take away from the opening weekend of the CFP’s first 12-team playoff, it was that. The jacked up atmosphere that you get every Saturday of the season across the land, when the sport shows off all the excitement and traditions it’s got to offer … that’s truly college football at its finest. Too bad we can’t say the same about the games themselves.
If you were waiting and hoping for some down to the wire dramatic finishes … well, you’re still waiting. All four games were decided by double digits and, outside of Clemson’s brief charge at Texas in the fourth quarter — which was immediately snuffed out when Jaydon Blue ripped off a 77-yard touchdown run to wrap up a 38-24 Longhorns win — there was little doubt about which four squads would be advancing to the quarterfinals.
The blowout losses by Indiana (which lost by a deceptively close 27-17 margin at Notre Dame) and SMU (wiped out 38-10 at Penn State), predictably, led to a chorus of questions about their worthiness to even be in the playoff (you can probably guess which conference the loudest voices emanated from). But the night’s final game — Ohio State’s complete throttling of Tennessee in a 42-17 rout — should have shot the final holes into any argument or general whining about Alabama being left out of the field (the Crimson Tide having lost to the Vols on the Third Saturday in October).
New flash, folks: this season, the Southeastern Conference wasn’t the same monster we’ve been using to seeing. It’s long past time to move on.
Some other thoughts about the CFP’s opening weekend …
First-round blowouts are nothing new
All the outcry about the one-sided losses by Indiana and SMU obscured one fact that anyone who’s followed the playoff since its inception in 2014 surely knows — there are a lot of bad games along the way. Even in championship games (remember Georgia 62, TCU 7 from two years ago?)
But the semifinals, in particular, featured routs more often than not. The very first CFP playoff game ever saw Oregon dominate Florida State 59-20. And remember, the four-team playoff was largely filled with big brand names for the most part. Seeing a Cincinnati (2021) or TCU (2022) in the field was way more the exception than the rule. And yet, the semifinals were consistently filled with one-sided results. Nothing new to see here.
(per The Athletic, the average margin of victory in semifinals from 2014-2023 was 17.9 points. This year, that number ticked up just slightly, to 19.3).
So it isn’t necessarily the system that’s the issue here, although there will surely be changes when the CFP’s new contract comes into being in 2026. As we noted a few weeks back, seeding is the No. 1 issue — giving the top four conference champions first-round byes was skewed by the awarding of those to Boise State and Arizona State, neither of which were close to being ranked in the top four. Had the top four ranked teams been given the week off, it would have produced some drastically different matchups Saturday.
Now, not even that draw is perfect — we potentially could have had Notre Dame-Penn State and Ohio State-Texas in the quarterfinals, two matchups that could still happen in the current format, but one round later. But it also would have avoided this situation …
Oregon’s reward for the No. 1 seed is … not great
The Ducks were the only team to run the table through the regular season and carry a perfect 13-0 record into the playoff. And right off the hop, they’ll have to face what may be their most difficult test of the season.
Yep, Oregon’s reward for that No. 1 seeding is … the Ohio State team that blew the doors off Tennessee and may well be the most talented team in the field. The Buckeyes looked scary good in racing out to a 21-0 lead in the first half and it was 42-10 when they called off the dogs with 10 minutes to play and started emptying the bench. Three weeks after the Michigan debacle, Ohio State looked like the team that many predicted before the season could be hoisting the crystal football on Jan. 20 in Atlanta.
These two teams played an epic game at Autzen Stadium back on Oct. 12, with the Ducks prevailing by a 32-31 margin. For much of the season, they seemed like the two best teams in the country — so much so that seeing them play twice more (in the Big Ten championship game and the playoff) wasn’t hard to picture. Then came the Buckeyes’ inexplicable faceplate against Michigan, and the narrative changed. And because of all that, they are playing again, but way, way too soon in an old-style Rose Bowl matchup.
Meanwhile, the team Oregon beat for the Big Ten title (Penn State) gets to face Group of Five power Boise State in the quarterfinals. We got into this a little bit earlier, but none of this seems fair in any way. Again, though, get the seedings right and this doesn’t happen. But it is what it is.
It should get better the next round … we think
We’ve already talked about Oregon-Ohio State. But there are more reasons than that (although that game itself is plenty) to get excited about the quarterfinal round, which will be played in bowl games.
Here’s the schedule (all games on TSN):
NEW YEAR’S EVE
Fiesta Bowl: No. 3 Boise State vs. No. 6 Penn State (7:30 p.m.)
NEW YEAR’S DAY
Peach Bowl: No. 4 Arizona State vs. No. 5 Texas (1 p.m.)
Rose Bowl: No. 1 Oregon vs. No. 8 Ohio State (5 p.m.)
Sugar Bowl: No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 7 Notre Dame (8:45 p.m.)
Those of a certain vintage might recall Boise State’s greatest bowl moment ever in the Fiesta Bowl way back in 2007, when the Broncos used a hook and ladder play to send the game against Oklahoma into overtime (this after the Sooners reeled off 25 straight points to wipe out a 28-10 deficit) — then went even deeper into the playbook for a Statue of Liberty play for the winning two-point convert in a 43-42 win (this highlight pack sums it all up).
While that game had significance in terms of pushing college football toward the playoff, this year’s Fiesta Bowl is actually part of the playoff — and that makes it the biggest game in Boise State football history. Can the Broncos and their 2,500-yard running back Ashton Jeanty come up with another dramatic triumph against a Penn State team that made short work of SMU? I guess that’s the lure of this one, when you get right down to it.
The New Year’s Day games should get better as the day goes on. Arizona State is one of the best stories in football this season, going from 3-9 to a most unlikely Big 12 title. But Sam Leavitt, Cam Skattebo and the Sun Devils face a major chore against the Texas defence, which bent some against Clemson but still remains among the best units in the college game. The Longhorns’ running attack churned out nearly 300 yards vs. the Tigers. It’ll be a long, long day for ASU if there’s a repeat performance in Atlanta.
In terms of brand names, it doesn’t get much better than the Sugar Bowl, where Notre Dame — fresh off its first ever CFP win — tries to take down SEC champion Georgia. With QB Carson Beck undergoing season-ending surgery, it’ll be Gunner Stockton’s show in New Orleans and his first career start comes against an Irish defence that rates among the best in CFB (although it’ll be missing DT Rylie Mills, who’s been ruled out in the wake of a knee injury suffered against Indiana). This one has all the earmarks of a good old-fashioned rock fight, featuring lots of defence and running the ball. This is the kind of game that, in the past, you’d be inclined to instantly pick the Bulldogs. But Notre Dame is well-positioned this time to go on a playoff run, and it can take Step 2 here in the Superdome.
Going bowling
The playoff has taken a lot of the lustre off the onslaught of bowl games that surrounds it. But there are a few contests out there that are worthy of your attention. We’d say keep an eye on these ones in particular:
Las Vegas Bowl: Texas A&M vs. USC (Dec. 27, 10:30 p.m.)
Pop-Tarts Bowl: Iowa State vs. Miami (Dec. 28, 3:30 p.m.)
Alamo Bowl: BYU vs. Colorado (Dec. 28, 7:30 p.m.)
Music City Bowl: Iowa vs. Missouri (Dec. 30, 2:30 p.m.)
ReliaQuest Bowl: Alabama vs. Michigan (Dec. 31, Noon)
Citrus Bowl: South Carolina vs. Illinois (Dec. 31, 3 p.m.)
Gator Bowl: Duke vs. Ole Miss (Jan. 2, 7:30 p.m.)
There are plenty of others, as those who follow this sport well know. A full schedule is here if you’re looking for more holiday season fare.
And that, dear readers, is a wrap on this Substack for 2024. We’ll be back in two weeks’ time to over-react to the CFP quarterfinals, and take a look toward the Final Four. Until then … happy holidays! See y’all again real soon.