Over-reaction Tuesday: The playoff committee gets it (mostly) right
You knew the selection of the first 12-team field wasn't going to happen without some controversy. But it's a bracket filled with exciting possibilities
There’s a part of me that can’t believe they actually did it.
But when it came right down to the crunch, the College Football Playoff selection committee did indeed ignore the massive brand name that is Alabama and instead gave SMU the final coveted ticket to the first 12-team tournament the sport has seen.
Then again, that kind of fits in rather nicely with a season that was notorious for its unpredictability from almost start to finish. Take a look at the complete bracket for the CFP, and tell me how many of those teams you absolutely would have said before the season had no chance to get there. Yet, here were are heading into the depths of December, and Indiana, Arizona State and yes, SMU, are still playing football. And giants of the sport such as Georgia and Clemson came perilously close to not making it to the big dance.
Let’s just say the drama was there right until literally the final second of Saturday’s conference championship games (which, quite frankly, are a bunch of predictable duds in most years).
Did the committee get it right in the end? For the most part, yes. While some might point out Alabama’s greater number of quality wins when compared to SMU — and yes, they’d have a point — the lesson here is a) don’t lose three games, and b) especially don’t be losing to .500 teams like Vanderbilt and Oklahoma (the latter a complete and utter 24-3 dusting just two weeks before Selection Sunday). That, more than anything, sealed the Crimson Tide’s fate.
There’s also this point (made loudly by many): What incentive would a team have to play in a conference final if it knew playing that extra game would put its CFP hopes in jeopardy? Bottom line: if the committee wanted to preserve the value of the conference title games, which are big moneymakers, it had to give SMU the nod.
A few other thoughts that came to mind about this …
Something is wrong with the seeding system
This is a topic that came up plenty on Sunday. Namely, No. 1 seed Oregon — the only unbeaten team left in college football — deserved better than a potential quarterfinal rematch against Ohio State, the team that played the Ducks better than anyone this season in a 32-31 thriller in October in Eugene. Sure, Oregon is getting a first-round bye, but it should also have earned a much easier test in the Rose Bowl on New Year’s Day. And there’s also the spectre of Texas possibly looming in the semifinals the following week. Not exactly the kind of path that an unbeaten No. 1 seed deserves, right? The argument has already been made that the tournament should be seeded from 1-12, based on the committee’s final rankings, with the top four getting the first week off (regardless of whether they’re conference champions or not). All of which leads us to this followup thought …
Penn State has a much easier path it doesn’t deserve
Yeah, I’m about to pile on the Nittany Lions a bit here again. But in all honesty, I’m not alone on this one. While they were more than competitive in their 45-37 loss to Oregon in the Big Ten championship game, the fact of the matter is this was a two-score game for long stretches. Don’t know about you, but never for a second did I think the Ducks were in danger of losing that game. Let’s just say it wasn’t exactly the same as, say, 32-31 at Autzen Stadium. And as we’ve said previously, Penn State doesn’t exactly have a lot of top 25 wins to hang its hat on (one, to be exact). For the record, I would have seeded the Nittany Lions eighth, behind both Notre Dame and Ohio State (which they lost to at home just a month ago). But instead, the committee gave them SMU and potentially Boise State as their path to the semifinals. Make that make sense to me.
The ACC was the big winner in this bracket
While the Big Ten will have the most teams (four) in this field, it’s the Atlantic Coast Conference that had the most to celebrate when the bracket was unveiled on Sunday. That’s because the ACC — which, for quite some time, was considered to be a one-bid league along with the Big 12 — managed to squeeze out a second spot in the field. That’s because Clemson scored a last-play 34-31 victory over SMU, earning an automatic bid as the conference champion. And then the committee made the Ponies the last at-large entry into the dance. But still, there had to be some nervous moments as SMU wiped out a 17-point deficit to tie things up. Had the Mustangs gone on to win, it would have been bye-bye to Clemson and hello, Alabama.
Expect the SEC to ramp up the push for more AQs
The folks from the Southeastern Conference will tell you, without any prompting at all, what a minefield it is to get through their conference schedule. And they won’t be wrong. But it just so happens that it’s a league that went all Big 12-style this season, with a level of cannibalizing not previously seen. That, however, was merely a statement that this was a season of several very good teams, and no really great ones. And while Alabama is already making noise about taking a hard look at the level of its non-conference scheduling in the wake of this playoff miss, it’s hardly why this happened. Rather, it was those two losses to pair of teams near the bottom of the SEC standings that did them in.
The format of the playoff is likely to change in 2026, when the original contract for the CFP expires. And the SEC, and especially the Big Ten, are already making noise about wanting as many as four automatic qualifiers from their conferences. Just because they can. Expect that push to get even more feverish in the months ahead, in the wake of the SEC getting “only” three entries into the field this year (Georgia, Texas and Tennessee).
Unbalanced scheduling played an outsized role this season
When the majority of conferences decided to abandon divisions this season, it created more problems that the one positive thing it was expected to do — ensure the top two teams in each conference played for the league title. That didn’t always happen in the past, when certain leagues had one division that was clearly stronger than the other, which gave certain teams a much easier path to the championship game (yes, we’re looking at you, Iowa).
While that was a noble aim, it also led to scheduling issues within now-bloated conferences such as the Big Ten and the SEC. It’s impossible now to play a full round-robin in those conferences, which means opponents rotate through over a three or four-year period. And that’s led to, shall we say, some serious scheduling unfairness this season.
Take the Big Ten, where there were four elite teams this season. Only one of them (Ohio State) had to play all of the other three. Penn State and Indiana did not play each other this season, and neither of them had to face Oregon. It’s fair to suggest if they’d all played each other, we may have ended up with a different matchup in the championship game in Indianapolis.
In the SEC, Georgia had to face Texas, Alabama, Ole Miss and Tennessee, all but one of them on the road. Meanwhile, the Rebels and Missouri, to name two, got away with only having to play one of those four powerhouses. And you wonder why the committee had such immense respect for Georgia?
All of this does balance itself out over time, but it’ll just mean somebody else has to deal with a much more rugged gauntlet the next time. And it won’t be any more fair when it happens to them than it did this season.
Some first-round thoughts …
The playoff opening round is still nearly two weeks away, but we thought now would be a good time for a snapshot look at each of the matchups. The dates and start times for the games are in graphic above, and it should be noted TSN will show them all in Canada.
No. 10 Indiana at No. 7 Notre Dame
It’s not exactly a long road trip for the Hoosiers to take on their cross-state rivals for the first time since 1991. It’s a battle of two 11-1 teams, one of which has run off 10 straight wins (most of them lopsided) since a stunning home loss to Northern Illinois in September, while the other take its dream ride from oblivion into the playoff. This seems like the place where Indiana’s fun run ends, but lots of folks have been counting out Curt Cignetti’s team along the way. It’s a more than safe bet that Marcus Freeman and the Irish aren’t among them. The Hoosiers have their full and complete attention, and their defence should challenge the Riley Leonard-led Irish offence.
No. 11 SMU at No. 6 Penn State
Nittany Lions coach James Franklin is on record as saying he hopes he gets two whiteouts on Saturday in State College. The home fans will give him one for sure at Beaver Stadium; he’s hoping the weather provides the other. The Ponies are making the farthest trip north for the playoff, but it’s not like Dallas hasn’t ever felt winter’s chill. Quarterback Kevin Jennings and Co. are one of college football’s best stories in 2024, making the playoff in their first year in the ACC. And their furious rally against Clemson showed this is a team to never count out. A win here could set Penn State on course for a trip deep into the playoff bracket. The stage is certainly set for them to do so.
No. 12 Clemson at No. 5 Texas
Points might be at a premium in Austin, where a pair of sturdy defences clash on the Longhorns’ home turf. The Tigers nearly blew their playoff spot until getting a 56-yard field goal at the gun to stave off SMU. Texas does present a whole different challenge, but a lot of what happens with the Longhorns’ offence centres around the health of QB Quinn Ewers. Got a feeling “backup” Arch Manning might play a key role before this one is done. Health is also a big issue for Clemson RB Phil Mafah, a key part of the Tigers’ offence.
No. 9 Tennessee at No. 8 Ohio State
Upon first glance, this seems like a bad matchup for the Buckeyes. You may recall they got stymied by Michigan’s elite defensive line, which choked off the Ohio State running game. Now along come the Volunteers, who sport another top-notch defensive front anchored by James Pearce that can get after the quarterback. The Tennessee offence revolves around RB Dylan Sampson, who rushed for nearly 1,500 yards and 22 touchdowns. It should an intriguing QB duel between the Vols’ Nico Iamaleava and the Buckeyes’ Will Howard, both of whom have left their teams wanting for more at times. Might be an idea for Ohio State to not forget about stud freshman WR Jeremiah Smith the way they did in the second half against Michigan.
Finally, a programming note
This space has always been about “over-reacting” on a Tuesday. But being that Army-Navy is the only game this weekend, we’ll be taking next Tuesday off. See you again on Dec. 24, when we’ll give you some Christmas Eve over-reacting to the first round of the 12-team playoff.