Over-reaction Tuesday: When Rivalry Week means even more

All those trophies are fun and who doesn't want bragging rights? But the College Football Playoff looms over many of this week's biggest games

Photo by Dave Adamson on Unsplash

Well, folks, we made it. Got through the bit of a slog that was Week 13 and now we get our just reward to close out the month of November.

And for my American friends and readers out there, no, we’re not just talking turkey (have fun feasting on all of that, by the way).

Rather, we speak of this wonderful thing called Rivalry Week, where all the passions that are at the heart of college football come home to roost in most brash and bold of ways. There are fun trophies to play for and the never-ending bragging rights. It’s all great theatre.

But in the new era of this sport, it’s never just about that anymore (as much as there is at stake in some of these bitterest of rivalries). As we’ll get to in our game capsules, you’ll see a number of the biggest games also have major College Football Playoff implications attached to them. And after a weekend that didn’t do much to shuffle the rankings — except in the Atlantic Coast Conference, of course — this is very welcome stuff indeed.

Before we get to that, however, let’s tackle some of the questions that are still lingering after a mostly uneventful weekend:

Is there chaos still waiting to happen this season?

Well, isn’t there always? We’ll get to the ACC, which has been perpetually in chaos for almost this entire season. But outside of that wacky conference, there are still some scenarios that could turn things upside down. The biggest example: what if Michigan extends its recent mastery over Ohio State and beats the Buckeyes for a fifth straight season? Outside of the expected chaos (and anger) that will be unleashed in Columbus, there is this: the Wolverines would be 10-2 and with a victory over the No. 1 ranked team, something nobody else has. So where would that put them in terms of the College Football Playoff? The Big Ten title game is out if Oregon wins at Washington. Then you’re talking about a logjam of potential 10-2 teams for an at-large berth that could include Oklahoma, Notre Dame, Alabama, Miami, Utah and Vanderbilt — all of whom are currently ranked above Michigan. It would be one helluva debate in the committee room.

Will Miami’s win over Notre Dame come into play at all?

You know Hurricanes fans certainly want that to happen. After all, they won that season opener 27-24 in south Florida. But right now, the Irish and Miami are still separated by three spots in the rankings — the Canes are still the ACC’s highest-rated team despite being rather a longshot to win the conference (again, we’ll get to that) — and that’s been enough for the committee to push that result into the background. What Miami could really use is for Auburn to upset Alabama in the Iron Bowl (and the game is at Jordan-Hare Stadium, which the weirdness in that bitter rivalry tends to happen) and BYU to fall at home to Central Florida. Odds are, neither of those things happen (especially the latter) but one can always hope, right? Then again, there’s always that other route that we need to talk about …

Exactly how much madness is left to see in the ACC?

If you want to bet we’re not done with the chaos yet in this wild and crazy conference race … that might be a super smart wager. Georgia Tech’s home-field loss to Pittsburgh kept both berths in the Dec. 6 title game in Charlotte very wide open, with six teams still in the hunt (those two plus Virginia, SMU, Miami and Duke). The Cavaliers and Mustangs have the clearest path — Virginia advances with a win over Virginia Tech, while SMU goes back to the championship game by winning at California. That’s the cleanest way to decide all of this which, of course, means it’s not going to be that easy, right? If you want to make your head spin wildly, how about you peruse this ridiculous list of every possible scenario for the half-dozen teams listed above. Oh, and about Miami: the Canes are in the title game if they win at Pitt, the Ponies take down Cal and Virginia and Duke (at home to Wake Forest) both lose (which is the least crazy of the eight ways — yes, there are that many — the Canes can get to Charlotte).

Whose playoff hopes took the biggest hit in Week 13?

Georgia Tech is the obvious one. The Yellow Jackets went from win and you’re in the conference title game to win and need tons of help (some of it on the unlikely side) to get there. USC had a terrific opportunity to put itself into primo shape in the Big Ten (the Trojans would have had pretty much all the tiebreakers covered) but couldn’t keep with Oregon in a 42-27 loss. Utah nearly fell by the wayside but used a stunning late rally to get past Kansas State 51-47. Anyone else that fell by the wayside didn’t have much of a shot, anyways.

Where are the potential danger spots in Week 14?

If you’re looking for a possible blunder from a team that’s done this before, look no further than Stark Vegas (that would be Starkville, Miss.), where Ole Miss visits state rival Mississippi State for the Egg Bowl. The Rebels have done just about everything right to put themselves in prime playoff position, but we said that a year ago and they suffered that awful loss at Florida. Despite all the distractions surrounding coach Lane Kiffin and his future, you’ve gotta think he’ll have them dialled in to avoid that kind of collapse again. While Texas A&M should have its playoff ticket locked up, a loss at old rival Texas could cost the Aggies a shot at the Southeastern Conference championship game (Georgia losing in Atlanta to Georgia Tech wouldn’t have the same effect because it’s not a conference game). Also, keep an eye on Norman, Okla., where the Sooners and that nasty defence face one final test against a talented (but enigmatic) LSU squad. Not that the Tigers have been monsters on offence this season, but still ... Oregon’s trip to Washington also wouldn’t be a crusher for the Ducks’ CFP hopes if they lost, but any Big Ten title game shot would most likely go down the tubes.

Looking ahead to Week 14

Rivalry Week always means two days’ worth of games that truly matter to both sides (some of which are on Black Friday). And there are a half dozen games this weekend that involve ranked teams — most of which are coming with potential playoff implications:

• No. 4 Georgia at No. 23 Georgia Tech, 3:30 p.m. Friday (ABC)

• No. 3 Texas A&M at No. 16 Texas, 7:30 p.m. Friday (ABC)

• No. 25 Arizona at No. 20 Arizona State, 9 p.m. Friday (Fox)

• No. 1 Ohio State at No. 15 Michigan, 12 noon (Fox)

• No. 12 Miami at No. 22 Pittsburgh, 12 noon (ABC)

• No. 14 Vanderbilt at No. 19 Tennessee, 3:30 p.m. (TSN+)

Some thoughts …

• “Clean, Old Fashioned Hate” moves from Georgia Tech’s campus to Mercedes-Benz Stadium for the latest instalment of the Yellow Jackets’ state rivalry game with Georgia on Black Friday. The Bulldogs, as we’ve stated in recent weeks, seem to be winding up into the form that makes them a threat to go on a deep playoff run. Georgia Tech’s loss to Pitt last week took a little of the lustre off this game, but a victory here might give the Jackets a card to play in the debate over at-large spots in the playoff. Given that their hopes of getting to the ACC title game took a major (and perhaps fatal) hit last week, a marquee win would (ahem) just mean more.

• A year ago, it was Texas heading into College Station for the resumption of this bitter rivalry and needing a win to clinch a berth in the SEC championship game and, by extension, the CFP. But the tables have turned dramatically this season, with the Aggies (who are 11-0 for the first time since 1992) making the trip to hostile Austin seeking the win that will essentially do the same things for them as the Horns gained in 2024. The quarterback duel between A&M’s Marcel Reed and Arch Manning of Texas will be one to watch, but the X factor in this game might will be the Aggie defence, which has been inconsistent at times this season.

• The Territorial Cup is up for grabs when Arizona visits Arizona State in what has become a ranked-on-ranked game with the Wildcats slipping into the bottom spot in this week’s rankings. A year ago when this game was played in Tucson, the Sun Devils rolled 49-7 en route to clinching a spot in the College Football Playoff (they’d eventually become Big 12 champions). Expect a much closer tilt this time, with both teams bringing 8-3 records into the game and the Wildcats riding a four-game win streak behind QB Noah Fifita (two of their three losses came by less than six points, so quite the bounce-back season by them).

• When your rivalry is simply known as “The Game” … well, not a whole helluva lot more needs to be said. Ohio State-Michigan is the most watched game in college football every season for a reason — there is generally a ton at stake on both sides. For the Buckeyes, ending a four-game losing streak to their hated rival is motivation enough, but a victory here would also assure the Buckeyes of an opportunity to play for the Big Ten championship for the first time since 2020. The Wolverines, meanwhile, have won five straight and are on the fringe of CFP contention. Taking down the No. 1 team would certainly be a major data point in Michigan’s favour, and the game is in the Big House, so they’ve got that on their side. There’s also snow in the forecast, which might not exactly help the Buckeyes’ lethal pass game, which will get a major boost if top receivers Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate end up being healthy enough to play.

• While they continue to be the top ACC team in the College Football Playoff rankings, Miami is going to need major help (as we’ve pointed out) to have a shot at reaching the ACC title game. A loss by SMU at California would be a start (one of the Hurricanes’ two conference loss is to the Mustangs), so would a Virginia Tech upset of Virginia. But it’s largely out of the hands of the Canes, who would dearly love to have their win over Notre Dame in Week 1 end up being a data point that matters.

• Who would have ever saw this coming? Vanderbilt playing at Tennessee with one team still being in the hunt for a CFP berth — and it’s not the Volunteers. Rather, it’s the Commodores, who are 9-2 for the first time since 1915 (!), with quarterback Diego Pavia doing his level best to will Vanderbilt to the playoff (he accounted for six TDs in last weekend’s rout of Kentucky). These state rivals started playing in 1892, but Saturday’s showdown at Neyland Stadium will mark the first time ever that both come into this game as ranked teams. You know Joey Aguilar & Co. would dearly love to throw a monkey wrench into whatever playoff hopes Vandy might entertain if it gets to 10-2.

• Other games of note this weekend: No. 7 Ole Miss at Mississippi State (12 noon Friday, ABC); No. 6 Oregon at Washington, 3:30 p.m. (CBS); LSU at No. 8 Oklahoma (3:30 p.m., ABC); Virginia Tech at No. 18 Virginia, 7 p.m. (TSN+); No. 10 Alabama at Auburn, 7:30 p.m. (ABC).

The Playoff Four (plus eight more)

Not a lot of movement on the penultimate weekend of the regular season, other than doing the usual swapping that involves an ACC team (see ya later, Georgia Tech). And we may not be done there yet.

With that in mind, here are this week’s set of our playoff rankings:

First Four: Ohio State, Indiana, Texas A&M, Georgia.

Next Eight: Texas Tech, Ole Miss, Oregon, Oklahoma, Notre Dame, Alabama, Virginia, Tulane (G5).

First five out: BYU, Utah, Vanderbilt, Miami, SMU.

Some explanation …

• Ohio State cleared the path to this weekend’s big showdown in Ann Arbor with a workmanlike 42-9 rout of Rutgers. The Buckeyes stay in this spot and, should they break the Michigan hex on Saturday, would head to Indianapolis for the Big Ten Championship game on Dec. 6 and a mega-showdown with Indiana in what would be a battle of 12-0 teams ranked No. 1 and No. 2 by everybody (we’re assuming, and undoubtedly correctly, that the Hoosiers will take care of business against Purdue in the Old Oaken Bucket rivalry game on Saturday).

• No changes at No. 3 and 4, either, as Texas A&M and Georgia both romped past overmatched FCS foes in the tradition that is like no other in college football — those SEC free spots on the bingo card before Rivalry Week. Both figure to have much tougher tests this week, especially the Aggies, who have a date with Arch Manning and the Texas Longhorns in Austin.

• In the next eight, pretty much everyone held serve save for Georgia Tech, which surrendered the ACC’s automatic berth (at least in these rankings) to Virginia, which is a win over Virginia Tech this weekend away from playing for the conference title and a shot at its first playoff berth..

• Oklahoma’s defence manhandled Missouri and that has the Sooners on the precipice of a playoff berth, which they should lock up by taking down LSU on Saturday. The rest of this grouping are probably all in with a win with the possible exception of Tulane, which currently holds down the Group of Five berth. We think if the Green Wave go on to claim the American title, they’ll end up in this spot ahead of the Sun Belt’s James Madison, which is 10-1 but takes a hit because of its weaker strength of schedule. North Texas and Navy also remain teams to watch in the American.