Over-reaction Tuesday: Setting the table for the only rankings that matter
The College Football Playoff committee meets for the first time this weekend, and that means it's time to start the countdown to the big show
We’re almost there … finally. One week to go and we get the first round of the only rankings that matter in terms of determining the national championship in college football.
So yeah, time to quit obsessing over things like The Associated Press and coaches’ polls, which haven’t had a thing to do with deciding titles since the College Football Playoff came into being back in 2014 (but hey, some traditions die hard, right?).
All of this arrives as we’re about to enter November, otherwise known as championship month in this sport. When we get down to the real nitty gritty in figuring out the dozen teams that will chase the CFP’s championship trophy in December and January.
Now, while we anxiously await next Tuesday’s first top 25 from the playoff committee, you’ve no doubt noticed the seemingly endless tsunami of coach firings at high-profile schools — and the millions of dollars certain institutions are willing to eat in the process of finding that one guy with the magic touch when it comes to the playoff.
We put all of this out there is a preamble to this week’s round of college football thoughts here on the Substack thing …
Who’s going to be No. 1?
The gut feeling here is that it’s going to be unbeaten Ohio State, especially if the Buckeyes take care of business the way they should this Saturday at home in The Horseshoe against reeling Penn State (the Nittany Lions have lost four straight to fall out of the playoff race, fired coach James Franklin and lost starting QB Drew Allar for the season to an injury). Ryan Day’s team has one of the nation’s best defences, an offence that gets a little more dangerous with each passing week and has outscored seven foes so far by a whopping 255-41. But still … there’s going to be an interesting case to be made for Indiana, which has a better resume than the Buckeyes (the win at Oregon in particular stands out) and has beaten three opponents by more than 50 points. Only Iowa (which stayed within 20-15 at home) has come within 10 points of the Hoosiers in their 8-0 start. Like we’ve said, there’s argument to be made for Indiana to start out as No. 1 in the first rankings. We’ll see if the committee goes down that road.
A coaching carousel like no other
It was a scene rarely seen at raucous Tiger Stadium (a.k.a. Death Valley) in Baton Rouge, La. Empty seats by the thousands in one of the nation’s most intimidating venues as their beloved Tigers took a 49-25 beating at the hands of a Texas A&M team that showed it has the chops to do some damage in the playoff. The inevitable happened a day later — LSU cut ties with embattled coach Brian Kelly, even if it meant swallowing a US$52 million buyout in the process. So just like that, three of the biggest jobs in college football — Penn State, Florida and LSU — are now all open at the same time, and it’s just wild. There are also rumblings surrounding Mike Norvell (Florida State) and perhaps Hugh Freeze (Auburn). Plus nine other jobs are already open, including Arkansas, Oklahoma State, Virginia Tech and UCLA. Let’s just say it’s a good time to be Lane Kiffin, expected to be a top candidate for both LSU and Florida — but might cash in big with an Ole Miss program that will likely do what it takes to keep him.
New faces in very lofty places
One of the things that was touted as being a great feature of the expanded 12-team playoff is that it would open doors to some teams who had been frozen out of the four-team affair that had been dominated by the likes of Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State and Clemson (who combined to win nine of the 11 CFP title games, the exceptions being LSU in 2019 and Michigan in 2023). But a year ago, we got to see teams like Indiana, SMU, Arizona State and Boise State get a shot at playing for all the marbles. And it was super refreshing. Will it happen again? Take a look at playoff rankings produced by people like, well, this space, and you’ll notice names such as Vanderbilt (!), Georgia Tech, Texas Tech and BYU in the thick of the race for one of the 12 berths. All of this is very healthy for college football and, quite frankly, it’s what the expanded playoff was meant to do.
Can the Big 12 and/or ACC get multiple teams in this dance?
The Big Ten and Southeastern Conference filled a combined seven spots (more than half) of last year’s playoff, with the Atlantic Coast Conference landing two and the Big 12 just one (independent Notre Dame and the Group of Five’s Boise State filled the other two berths). While the SEC (four or five) and the Big Ten (three) are likely to dominate the 2025 bracket, the question is whether there are multiple bids in the offing for the ACC and the Big 12. Georgia Tech and Miami are certainly top contenders to get in from the ACC, while BYU and Texas Tech from the Big 12 certainly have a case for inclusion. The wild card, as usual, is Notre Dame. If the Irish run the table to get to 10-2, there are a whole lot of folks who consider them a lock to get in. Then the issue would become who gets squeezed out this time.
This year’s prime agent of chaos could be …
We’re going to say … the Pitt Panthers. Pat Narduzzi’s team currently sits alone in third place in the ACC at 4-1, and has reeled off four wins in a row after a middling 2-2 start. Why the Panthers as potentially the nation’s biggest spoilers? Their schedule. Look at their final three games in November: at home to Notre Dame, at Georgia Tech and at home against Miami to close out the season. All three of those teams, as noted above, are primed contenders for CFP berths. And a loss to Pitt could be a killer to their chances. Oh, and there’s also this — the Panthers knocked Miami out of last year’s playoff with a November upset. So yeah, Narduzzi’s crew knows how to unleash the chaos. Let’s see how often they might be able to do it again.
Looking ahead to Week 10
There’s at least one game this Saturday that, at least at the outset of the season, seemed like it would be THE game of the day. But well, things happened and instead, we lead off with one of the biggest surprise stories of the 2025 campaign. And the aforementioned matchup winds up leading off the “other” category at the end of this section:
No. 9 Vanderbilt at No. 20 Texas (12 noon, ABC)
No. 18 Oklahoma at No. 14 Tennessee (7:30 p.m., ABC)
No. 17 Cincinnati at No. 24 Utah (10:15 p.m.)
Some thoughts …
Vanderbilt is ranked in the top 10 for the first time since 1937, yet another milestone in this 7-1 joy ride of a season. But the path doesn’t get any easier for Diego Pavia and Co., who travel to Austin this week for a matchup against a Texas team that was a pre-season favourite in the SEC. The Longhorns’ season appeared on life support last week in Starkville, Miss. (aka Stark Vegas), but Arch Manning’s best game of the season allowed Texas to wipe out a 17-point deficit and beat Mississippi State 45-38 in overtime. So the Horns carry a wave of momentum into this week’s latest conference blockbuster for the Commodores, who outlasted Missouri 17-10 in a gritty contest in Nashville last weekend. The big question here is the status of Manning, who was knocked out of the Mississippi State game and went into concussion protocol. No word yet on whether he’ll play.
Speaking of rugged roads … how about Oklahoma, going from a gut-wrenching 34-26 home loss to Ole Miss to this week’s visit to Rocky Top to take on a dangerous Tennessee team that hung 56 points on Kentucky last week behind Joey Aguilar’s huge 396-yard, three touchdown day through the air. This game at Neyland Stadium qualifies as a true eliminator in the SEC race both teams, each of whom have two conference losses. The Volunteers will surely test a defence that is the Sooners’ strength, while QB John Mateer will aim to light it up against the Tennessee stop troops.
Very quietly, Cincinnati has thrust itself into the thick of the title chase in the Big 12. Following a season opening loss to Nebraska on a Thursday night, the Bearcats have run off seven straight wins and moved to 5-0 in the conference with a dominant win over Baylor. They’re tied at the top of the Big 12 with BYU, with those teams slated to meet later in November at Nippert Stadium in Cincinnati. Meanwhile, Utah bounced back in a big way from a loss to the unbeaten Cougars by pummelling Colorado 53-7. The Utes already own two Big 12 losses, so this seems like pretty much a must win for Kyle Whittingham’s always physical Utes.
Other games of note: Penn State at No. 1 Ohio State (12 noon, Fox); No. 10 Miami at SMU (12 noon); No. 5 Georgia vs. Florida, at Jacksonville (3:30 p.m., ABC); No. 15 Virginia at California (3:45 p.m.); No. 23 USC at Nebraska (7:30 p.m., NBC).
The Playoff Four (plus eight more)
Another week of some subtle shuffling in the rankings, but there are some key games on the horizon over the next few weekends that should solidify things a little more … we think:
Anyways, on with this week’s set of our playoff rankings.
First Four: Ohio State, Indiana, Texas A&M, Alabama.
Next Eight: Georgia, Ole Miss, Georgia Tech, Oregon, Miami, Vanderbilt, BYU, Memphis (G5).
First four out: Notre Dame, Texas Tech, Virginia, Louisville.
Some explanation …
Quite frankly, it’s gonna be awfully tough to keep Indiana out of the No. 1 spot in these rankings for much longer. Remember how some of us (foolishly) thought a hot UCLA team might be able to run with the Hoosiers for a bit? Ah, no. Indiana obliterated the Bruins 56-6, their third Big 10 conference win by 50 or more points. The Hoosiers are getting it done on offence behind Heisman frontrunner QB Fernando Mendoza and a defence that is nasty. All that being said, we’re still leaving Ohio State in the top spot, mainly because they’ve given us no reason to drop them … yet. Buckeyes are back from a bye week this Saturday to square off with Penn State, in what was supposed to be one of the season’s biggest showdowns. Not anymore.
Texas A&M and Alabama swap positions. The Aggies were absolutely dominant on both sides of the ball in crushing LSU (and we’ve already talked about the ramifications of that), while Alabama needed a late rally to overcome a game South Carolina team. These two teams appear on course for a mega showdown in the SEC Championship game in early December.
The big win by Ole Miss at Oklahoma puts the Rebels back into the Next Eight, while the Sooners disappear from these rankings completely as the SEC grind takes its toll on them. Oregon wasn’t impressive in dispatching a not good Wisconsin 21-7 in rainy Eugene, so we’ve dumped them behind Georgia, Ole Miss and Georgia Tech. Vanderbilt keeps making its case for playoff inclusion, while BYU stayed among the unbeaten six by rallying past Iowa State. Big games ahead for the Cougars.
Somebody had to take the fall to allow Ole Miss back into the Next Eight and for this week, at least, it’s two-loss Notre Dame. Texas Tech is also on the outside looking in … for now. We’re thinking both teams could end up among the playoff dozen before all is said and done. Let’s just let ’er play out, as they say.
Virginia remains unbeaten in the ACC and as such, remains in the frontrunner position for a shot in the conference title game along with Georgia Tech. But don’t count out teams such as Miami and Louisville, which have but one conference setback (to the cardiac Cavaliers, in the latter’s case).
After dropping out of the Group of Five spot for a week, Memphis’ stirring 17-point rally in the fourth quarter allowed the Tigers to take down South Florida 34-31 and reclaim that position from the Bulls. But this thing is far from over. Don’t count out Tulane here and remember, Navy is still unbeaten.