Over-reaction Tuesday: Better Sooner than later
Oklahoma's victory at Alabama shuffled the rankings in a major way, and it's a result that might have repercussions for the College Football Playoff
It was one of those games that most everyone had circled on their calendar as a potential game of the day. And oh, did it live up to its billing — with potentially seismic consequences.
For all those folks who forgot about Oklahoma after those October losses to Texas and Ole Miss … let’s just say Brent Venables’ crew offered up a stinging reminder that their College Football Playoff hopes aren’t quite dead yet. Far from it, in fact.
The Sooners’ 23-21 conquest of Alabama right in Tuscaloosa was that significant, in ways that we’ll get into shortly. That, plus another key Southeastern Conference result, head off the reactions (or, paying homage to the headline on this column, over-reactions) from another big Saturday in a November that is rapidly approaching its zenith.
Oklahoma is in the driver’s seat for a CFP berth
Let those words sink in for a moment. Most of us never would have considered them possible after the two losses we mentioned earlier, with lots of folks thinking there might be more to come. All it took, however, were three hours of nasty defence and timely quarterback play on Saturday to change the narrative completely. While those two SEC losses most likely have the Sooners on the outside looking in as far as playing for a conference title, the College Football Playoff is definitely on their radar screen now. With victories at home over Missouri and LSU the next two Saturdays, a 10-2 Oklahoma squad can definitely book themselves tickets to the CFP. Or, as a variation of a well-worn old line might put it … better Sooner than later, right?
Georgia is starting to get some national title vibes
For much of the early part of the season, the word on Georgia was it was the team that wouldn’t die. Resiliency got the Bulldogs through some shootouts against Tennessee and Ole Miss, and a challenge from bitter rival Florida in the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party (yes, we still call it that) in Jacksonville. But it was a whole other story on Saturday night between the hedges, when Georgia squared off a Texas team with a lot of momentum that was pushing hard to keep its CFP hopes alive. But what we saw instead was one of those old-style Georgia games in which they smother the opponent defensively and do more than enough on offence to win handily (35-10, in this case). That Bulldog team can do some damage in the playoff, and has put itself in prime position to get to Atlanta for the SEC championship game. Their work in the conference is done, so now it’s a matter of sitting back and seeing what the likes of Texas A&M (which needed a comeback for the ages to wipe out a 27-point halftime deficit against South Carolina), Alabama and Ole Miss do next weekend.
Does anybody really want to win the ACC?
Sometimes, you do wonder about that. Like, for example, when you watch Georgia Tech fall behind by double digits against a terrible Boston College team with just one win before finally pulling out a 36-34 victory on a late field goal. But you also see Virginia whip Duke 34-17 in a game that could have unleashed some serious chaos in the Atlantic Coast Conference had it gone the other way. All that being said, we’re still a far way from learning who gets to Charlotte for the conference title game. Georgia Tech, Virginia, Pittsburgh and SMU still only have one ACC loss, and Miami (still the conference’s top-ranked team in the CFP rankings) is lurking at 4-2. Somebody has to emerge from this mess, and we’ll see who really wants it more over the next two weekends.
Some Big Ten chaos might be on the horizon
The story for the longest time about the Big Ten and the playoff has been this: Ohio State and Indiana, who have been 1-2 in everybody’s rankings for about a month now, are virtual locks for the CFP. Oregon is next in line and then … that’s where the talk ends. But there are a few games over the final two weekends of the regular season that might throw a monkey wrench into those plans. First off is USC’s visit to Oregon this Saturday, which is most likely the Trojans’ last stand in terms of having a shot at the playoff. But should they pull off the upset, that could be bad news for Michigan, whose 8-2 record this season includes a loss to USC. Now, what if the Wolverines extend their hex over Ohio State on Nov. 29 in Ann Arbor? Might be hard to keep Michigan out with that kind of a win on their resume. So yeah, a few results going a certain way could mess up this picture in some significant ways. Something worth tracking the rest of the way.
So that 0-2 start didn’t doom Notre Dame after all
Rest easy, Irish fans. That 0-2 start to the season (which included losses to Miami and Texas A&M) didn’t crush their CFP hopes after all. At least we think so. Last Saturday’s demolition of Pitt was thought to be the last real obstacle standing between Notre Dame and a 10-2 season which should get them into the playoff. However, there is one potential point of comparison that might give Irish fans some pause. And that’s this: what if Miami finishes 10-2? Does that season-opening loss to the Hurricanes affect the playoff committee’s thoughts on Notre Dame in any way? Yes, head to head is supposed to matter. But we wonder if the fact that game happened way back in August might downgrade its influence in a major way. Canes fans sure don’t hope so. But’s it at least something that might come up for discussion in the weeks ahead.
Looking ahead to Week 13
This deep into the season, it’s not difficult to see most of these matchups involving ranked teams as elimination games in terms of the playoff. And we’ve got a few of those on the docket Saturday:
No. 22 Missouri at No. 8 Oklahoma, 12 noon (ABC, TSN2)
No. 15 USC at No. 7 Oregon (3:30 p.m., CBS)
Pittsburgh at No. 16 Georgia Tech (7 p.m., TSN+)
No. 11 BYU at Cincinnati (8 p.m., Fox)
Some thoughts …
Yeah, that win at Alabama was huge. But the job isn’t quite done for Oklahoma (8-2), which has a couple of SEC foes to conquer to claim the ticket to the CFP that is clearly now available to them. The first test comes Saturday, when Missouri (7-3) arrives in Norman coming off a 49-27 beatdown of Mississippi State in which Ahmad Hardy rushed for a career best 300 yards and three touchdowns. That being said, the Sooner defence — which muzzled Alabama for much of their game last Saturday — is a serious step up in class. Their efforts and a little bit of magic from QB John Mateer has been a winning formula for Oklahoma for much of this season. Win this one, and the Sooners “just” need to handle a disappointing LSU team at home next weekend to make a reservation for the CFP.
An old Pacific-12 (or Pac-8?) matchup jumps to the forefront as this week’s biggest game, and not just because of the teams’ rankings or records. Simply put, this game is going to go a long way toward deciding which of the two stays in the running for a College Football Playoff berth. And potentially, just how much of a mess the Big Ten could be looking at heading into the final weekend in terms of determining who makes the conference title game (which we’ve detailed above). For Oregon (9-1), the task is simple: win this game and next week at Washington, and the Ducks are making the playoff. USC (8-2), meanwhile, can throw its hat into the ring with a the growing pile of 10-2 teams we’ll be debating over the next few weeks by going into Autzen Stadium (one of the toughest environments in all of college football) and pulling off the win, then taking down city rival UCLA next week. Saturday will be a tall order for Jayden Maiava, Makai Lemon and Co., but expect a high-stakes battle to the finish.
Remember how we proclaimed Pittsburgh (7-3) to be the biggest potential agent of chaos a few weeks back? Well, it didn’t happen last week against Notre Dame (the Irish rolled quite easily) but the games that really matter in that regard are coming up over the next two weekends. It starts Saturday at Georgia Tech (9-1), which barely escaped a massive upset at one-win Boston College last week. Both of these teams are among the four one-loss teams at the top of the ACC (Virginia and SMU are the others) and this result could knock the loser out of the race to reach the conference title game (and the CFP). This is the last ACC game for the Yellow Jackets, who would move to 7-1 in the conference with a win. The Panthers, meanwhile, still have a home game with Miami (which is 4-2 in the ACC) next weekend. The Hurricanes need some chaos above them to have any shot at reaching the championships game so yeah, you know they’ll be rooting for a Pitt victory … this week, at least.
We’ve pretty much decided here that Texas Tech is headed to the Big 12 championship game in Arlington (the Red Raiders appear to be a notch above their conference rivals) but the question is, who’ll line up across from them at Jerry World on Dec. 6? There was a time (like, about a week ago) we thought it would be the winner of Saturday’s game at Nippert Stadium between BYU (9-1) and Cincinnati (7-3). But then the Bearcats lost at home to Arizona last Saturday and now find themselves in a logjam of four teams at 5-2 in the Big 12. A Cincinnati win this weekend would drag the Cougars down into that pile and create some serious, um, fun (?) heading in the final Saturday of the regular season. BYU, however, would all but lock up that spot (they’re 6-1 in the Big 12), given their finale is a home game against lowly Central Florida.
Other games of note on Saturday: Louisville at SMU (12 noon, TSN+); No. 13 Miami at Virginia Tech, 12 noon (TSN+); Kentucky at No. 14 Vanderbilt (3:30 p.m., TSN+).
The Playoff Four (plus eight more)
For a time on Saturday, it appeared a major shuffle might be in order for this week’s rankings. But in the end, one game in particular accounted for much of the movement.
With that in mind, here are this week’s set of our playoff rankings:
First Four: Ohio State, Indiana, Texas A&M, Georgia.
Next Eight: Texas Tech, Ole Miss, Oklahoma, Oregon, Notre Dame, Alabama, Georgia Tech, Tulane (G5).
First four out: BYU, Utah, Vanderbilt, USC.
Some explanation …
Ohio State crushed another overmatched rival (UCLA being the latest victim) as the Buckeyes charge toward the season-ending visit to Ann Arbor that will say a lot about where they land in the playoff (and they’ll be safely in by then). Indiana, meanwhile, shook off a bit of a slow start to take down Wisconsin in expected fashion. The Hoosiers are just an (expected) blowout of Purdue on Nov. 29 that will wrap up the first 12-0 season in school history.
For a half, it looked like Texas A&M was headed for a major crash in the rankings, but rallying from a 30-3 deficit against South Carolina keeps the Aggies in the No. 3 hole … for now. However, there’s an argument out there to put them behind Georgia, which dominated Texas in perhaps its best performance of the season. The Bulldogs appear to be fully winding up for a serious run at the national title.
Texas Tech moves to within one spot of a playoff bye, with the Red Raiders pounding Central Florida to move to 10-1. Only a visit to West Virginia stands between them and the Big 12 championship game. The Red Raiders are the (very) clear frontrunner to land the conference’s automatic berth in the playoff. They’re that good.
Oklahoma’s upset of Alabama did the most to shuffle the rankings this week, with the Sooners moving up to No. 7 and in clear control of their bid for a playoff berth. While the Crimson Tide tumbled down the rankings to No. 10, they’ve still got an opportunity to get to the SEC title game. A win in the Iron Bowl at Auburn on the final weekend keeps them in the conversation, although tiebreakers come into play if both Georgia and Ole Miss have one loss in the conference (the Bulldogs’ SEC schedule is already done). It gets even crazier if Texas A&M loses at Texas on Black Friday.
The battle for the G5 berth in the playoff took another wild turn Saturday when Navy upset South Florida, which pretty much knocked the Bulls out of the picture. The Midshipmen inserted themselves into the hunt with that win, with Tulane and North Texas also among the teams in the American still with a shot. James Madison (Sun Belt) is waiting to pounce if all of the above teams keep cannibalizing each other.